{"generatedAt":"2026-09-13T17:45:00.171Z","dataAsOf":"2026-09-13T16:41:53.327Z","forecast":{"probability24h":75,"probability48h":91,"confidence":"high","hoursSinceLastReset":1214.1,"avgIntervalHours":116,"narrative":"Multiple signals are pointing the same direction: a fresh post from the Codex team plus elevated community chatter make a reset in the next day more likely than not."},"sourceMonitoring":[{"source":"x","label":"Tibo / OpenAI on X","weight":0.55,"status":"quiet","detail":"No fresh reset-relevant posts in the last 48h"},{"source":"status","label":"OpenAI Status","weight":0.25,"status":"normal","detail":"Last collector snapshot reported no active platform-wide incident"},{"source":"github","label":"openai/codex GitHub Issues","weight":0.2,"status":"elevated","detail":"Elevated complaint volume about fast quota drain"}],"lastConfirmedReset":{"id":"2026-07-25-outage-compensation","timestamp":"2026-07-25T03:37:00.000Z","title":"Global Codex compensation reset","description":"Usage limits were reset for all Codex and ChatGPT Work users after a near-global outage the previous night.","scope":"All Codex and ChatGPT Work users","source":"x","sourceLabel":"Tibo on X","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/thsottiaux","kind":"confirmed","quote":"We have reset usage limits for all Codex and ChatGPT Work users. Last night around 2am to 4am we suffered an almost global outage. All well and recovered, but you know what comes next. We learn. We reset. Enjoy."},"recentEvents":[{"id":"status-01M2D1CZG0862JB4JHVW56QF89","timestamp":"2026-09-13T09:26:00Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Codex GitHub Review and Pull Request Failures","description":"Incident status: resolved. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":18},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-13","timestamp":"2026-09-13T01:37:10.110Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-12","timestamp":"2026-09-12T01:46:22.578Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"status-01M28MEQWTQJDRCRPFD9FWQ0H3","timestamp":"2026-09-11T16:22:49Z","title":"OpenAI Status: 1% of ChatGPT Work (mobile/web) turns are failing for existing threads","description":"Incident status: investigating. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":8},{"id":"status-01M27Q9GH7WVKNA61ZR3RDMSY5","timestamp":"2026-09-11T07:53:08Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Elevated errors for ChatGPT users in Europe","description":"Incident status: resolved. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":18},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-11","timestamp":"2026-09-11T01:40:23.424Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"status-01M26DX2PP1AFHGJK5E4M6S2J6","timestamp":"2026-09-10T19:49:49Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Elevated errors affecting ChatGPT Work","description":"Incident status: monitoring. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":8},{"id":"status-01M24HYC9SX2Q4471EVMY6EXQE","timestamp":"2026-09-10T02:21:57Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Unable to open shared ChatGPT Project using direct link","description":"Incident status: identified. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":8},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-10","timestamp":"2026-09-10T01:41:23.511Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-09","timestamp":"2026-09-09T00:47:18.025Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-08","timestamp":"2026-09-08T01:38:33.668Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-07","timestamp":"2026-09-07T00:25:26.662Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-06","timestamp":"2026-09-06T00:19:27.052Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-05","timestamp":"2026-09-05T01:36:17.728Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/34035","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"status-01M1NKFZH5EEYEREC54HNAHY35","timestamp":"2026-09-04T07:00:26Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Users in APAC region may face increased error in ChatGPT, Work, image generation, file upload, Voice, and Codex Cloud","description":"Incident status: resolved. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":18},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-04","timestamp":"2026-09-04T01:37:26.929Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/23794","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"status-01M1KWEDH417T2CF44YYHZDFCR","timestamp":"2026-09-03T14:58:23Z","title":"OpenAI Status: Elevated errors across ChatGPT and Codex","description":"Incident status: investigating. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":8},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-03","timestamp":"2026-09-03T01:41:15.141Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/23794","kind":"signal","impact":20},{"id":"status-01M1J99EDCYED5GP2W8GZ3N2NA","timestamp":"2026-09-03T00:04:23Z","title":"OpenAI Status: ChatGPT Work Mode High Error Rates","description":"Incident status: resolved. Historically, incidents affecting Codex have a meaningful chance of preceding a compensation reset within 24-48 hours.","scope":"Signal derived from OpenAI Status","source":"status","sourceLabel":"OpenAI Status","sourceUrl":"https://status.openai.com","kind":"signal","impact":18},{"id":"github-spike-2026-09-02","timestamp":"2026-09-02T00:36:59.946Z","title":"GitHub issue activity spike","description":"5 high-engagement openai/codex issue(s) currently discussing quota/reset problems.","scope":"Community-reported, corroborating signal","source":"github","sourceLabel":"openai/codex Issues","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/23794","kind":"signal","impact":20}],"disclaimer":"Independent, unofficial forecast. Not affiliated with OpenAI. Probabilities are heuristic estimates, not guarantees. See https://codexreset.app/methodology for the full formula."}