How the Codex Reset forecast works
Every Codex Reset probability comes from a documented, deterministic heuristic—not a hidden model. The forecast combines verified Codex Reset history with fresh public signals, then reduces the influence of old evidence over time.
Forecast dataset last refreshed Sep 13, 2026, 04:41 PM UTC.
Historical baseline hazard rate
We compute the average gap, in hours, between every confirmed historical reset. That average becomes a baseline daily hazard rate: 24 / average_gap_hours. The result is clamped between 6% and 55% so one unusually short or long gap cannot dominate the Codex Reset forecast.
Cooldown multiplier
A public reset that just happened is less likely to repeat immediately. As the current gap moves beyond the historical average, the forecast rises gradually. We multiply the baseline by hours_since_last_reset / (average_gap_hours × 0.55), clamped between 0.18× and 1.75×.
Public signal boost with exponential decay
Each precursor signal—a suggestive Codex team post, an OpenAI incident, or a spike in relevant GitHub activity—is scored for how strongly it implies an imminent Codex Reset. That score decays with a 20-hour half-life, so old chatter contributes very little to today's number. The final 24-hour probability is the baseline times the cooldown multiplier, plus all decayed signal scores, clamped between 2% and 97%.
The 48-hour Codex Reset probability compounds the 24-hour estimate with the conservative formula 1 − (1 − p24h)^1.7. It is not a doubled score and should not be read as a countdown.
Forecast confidence
Confidence is high when multiple independent signals agree and at least one is fresh; low when the Codex Reset estimate relies only on historical timing; and moderate otherwise. Confidence describes the evidence quality, not the size of the probability.
Where the forecast evidence comes from
- OpenAI Status: public incident information relevant to Codex or shared ChatGPT infrastructure.
- Public Codex team posts: explicit reset announcements and lower-weight precursor signals, with any coverage gap shown as quiet—not treated as proof that nothing happened.
- GitHub: public openai/codex issue and discussion activity used as independent developer-sourced corroboration.
- Verified reset history: sourced event dates used to calculate the baseline gap and timing distribution.
A forecast, not a promise
Will Codex Reset Today? is an independent, experimental project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by OpenAI. A Codex Reset forecast can be wrong in either direction and never guarantees a reset at a specific time. Always check your own /status and /usage for account-specific decisions.